Njengoba amagagasi okushisa adlulele ebhubhisa i-United States, iYurophu kanye ne-Afrika, ebulala izinkulungwane zabantu, ososayensi baxwayisa ngokuthi okubi kakhulu kuseza. Njengoba amazwe eqhubeka nokupompa amagesi okushisa abangela ukushisa emoyeni kanye nethuba lokuthi umthetho wokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kahulumeni obalulekile ubhidlike e-US, amazinga okushisa ashubile kuleli hlobo angase abonakale ephansi eminyakeni engama-30 ezayo.
Kuleli sonto, abaningi babone umthelela obulalayo ongaba nawo ukushisa okukhulu ezweni elingakulungele kahle amazinga okushisa ashisayo. E-UK, lapho umoya opholile ungavamile khona, ezokuthutha zomphakathi zavalwa, izikole namahhovisi avaliwe, kanti izibhedlela zakhansela izinqubo ezingezona eziphuthumayo.
I-air conditioner, ubuchwepheshe abaningi ababuthatha kalula emazweni acebile kakhulu emhlabeni, iyithuluzi elisindisa impilo ngesikhathi sokushisa okukhulu. Kodwa-ke, cishe u-8% kuphela wabantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2.8 abahlala ezindaweni ezishisa kakhulu - futhi ngokuvamile ezimpofu kakhulu - emhlabeni okwamanje bane-AC emakhaya abo.
Ephepheni lakamuva, ithimba labacwaningi abavela kwiHarvard China Project, ehlala eHarvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS), libonise isidingo sesikhathi esizayo somoya opholile njengoba izinsuku ezinokushisa okukhulu zanda emhlabeni jikelele. Ithimba lithole igebe elikhulu phakathi kwamandla e-AC amanje nalokho okuzodingeka ngo-2050 ukusindisa izimpilo, ikakhulukazi emazweni anemali engenayo ephansi nasathuthuka.
Abacwaningi balinganisela ukuthi, ngokwesilinganiso, okungenani ama-70% abantu emazweni amaningana bazodinga umoya opholile ngo-2050 uma izinga lokukhishwa kwegesi liqhubeka nokwanda, kanti lelo nani liphakeme nakakhulu emazweni ase-equator njenge-India ne-Indonesia. Ngisho noma umhlaba uhlangabezana nemingcele yokukhishwa kwegesi ebekwe kwi-Paris Climate Agreements - okuyinto engekho endleleni yokuyenza - isilinganiso sama-40% kuya kuma-50% abantu emazweni amaningi afudumele kakhulu emhlabeni sisazodinga i-AC.
“Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi imiphi imigudu yokukhishwa kwegesi, kudingeka ukuthi kube nokwandiswa okukhulu kwezindlela zokupholisa umoya noma ezinye izindlela zokupholisa isikhala kubantu abayizigidigidi ukuze bangabi ngaphansi kwalezi zimo zokushisa ezidlulele empilweni yabo yonke,” kusho uPeter Sherman, umfundi we-postdoctoral eHarvard China Project kanye nombhali wokuqala wephepha lakamuva.
USherman, kanye noHaiyang Lin, owayenguprofesa wezokwelapha, kanye noMichael McElroy, uSolwazi weSayensi Yezemvelo eGilbert Butler e-SEAS, babheke ngqo izinsuku lapho inhlanganisela yokushisa nomswakama, elinganiswa ngokushisa okubizwa ngokuthi yi-wet-bulb elula, ingabulala ngisho nabantu abancane, abanempilo emahoreni ambalwa. Lezi zenzakalo ezimbi kakhulu zingase zenzeke lapho amazinga okushisa ephakeme ngokwanele noma lapho umswakama uphakeme ngokwanele ukuvimbela ukujuluka ekupholiseni umzimba.
“Ngenkathi sigxile ezinsukwini lapho izinga lokushisa lebhalbhu elimanzi elenziwe lula lidlula umkhawulo lapho amazinga okushisa esongela khona impilo yabantu abaningi, amazinga okushisa ebhalbhu elimanzi angaphansi kwalowo mkhawulo angase angakhululeki futhi abe yingozi ngokwanele ukuthi angadinga i-AC, ikakhulukazi kubantu abasengozini,” kusho uSherman. “Ngakho-ke, lokhu kungenzeka ukuthi kuwukunganaki ukuthi abantu abadinga i-AC engakanani esikhathini esizayo.”
Ithimba libheke ikusasa ezimbili — elilodwa lapho ukukhishwa kwamagesi okushisa okwanda kakhulu kusuka esilinganisweni sanamuhla kanye nekusasa eliphakathi nendawo lapho ukukhishwa kwamagesi okushisa kunciphisa khona kodwa kungancishiswa ngokuphelele.
Esikhathini esizayo sokukhishwa kwegesi ephezulu, ithimba locwaningo lilinganisele ukuthi ama-99% abantu basemadolobheni eNdiya nase-Indonesia bazodinga umoya opholile. EJalimane, izwe elinesimo sezulu esifudumele ngokomlando, abacwaningi balinganisele ukuthi abantu abangafika ku-92% bazodinga i-AC uma kwenzeka ukushisa okukhulu. E-US, cishe ama-96% abantu bazodinga i-AC.
Amazwe anemali engenayo ephezulu njenge-US alungele kangcono ngisho nekusasa elibi kakhulu. Njengamanje, cishe ama-90% abantu e-US banokufinyelela ku-AC, uma kuqhathaniswa nama-9% e-Indonesia kanye nama-5% kuphela e-India.
Ngisho noma ukukhishwa kwegesi kuncishisiwe, i-India ne-Indonesia kusazodingeka ukuthi basebenzise umoya opholile kubantu abangu-92% kanye no-96% wabantu basemadolobheni ngokulandelana.
I-AC eningi izodinga amandla engeziwe. Amagagasi okushisa aphezulu asevele ecindezela amagridi kagesi emhlabeni wonke futhi isidingo esikhulu se-AC esingase sicindezele izinhlelo zamanje sifinyelele esicongweni. E-US, isibonelo, umoya opholile kakade ubanga ngaphezu kwama-70% wesidingo sikagesi sezindlu esiphezulu ezinsukwini ezishisa kakhulu kwezinye izifundazwe.
“Uma wandisa isidingo se-AC, lokho kunomthelela omkhulu kugridi kagesi,” kusho uSherman. “Kubeka ingcindezi kugridi ngoba wonke umuntu uzosebenzisa i-AC ngesikhathi esifanayo, okuthinta isidingo sikagesi esiphezulu.”
“Uma uhlela izinhlelo zikagesi zesikhathi esizayo, kusobala ukuthi awukwazi nje ukwandisa isidingo samanje, ikakhulukazi emazweni afana ne-India ne-Indonesia,” kusho uMcElroy. “Ubuchwepheshe obufana namandla elanga bungaba usizo kakhulu ekubhekaneni nalezi zinselele, njengoba ijika lokuphakelwa elihambisanayo kufanele lihambisane kahle nalezi zikhathi zesidingo esiphezulu sasehlobo.”
Amanye amasu okunciphisa isidingo sikagesi esikhulayo afaka phakathi ama-dehumidifier, asebenzisa amandla amancane kakhulu kune-air conditioner. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ikhambi liyini, kusobala ukuthi ukushisa okukhulu akuyona nje inkinga yezizukulwane ezizayo.
“Lokhu kuyinkinga okwamanje,” kusho uSherman.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Septhemba-07-2022
