Ucwaningo olusha oluholwa yiBarcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), isikhungo esisekelwa yi-“la Caixa” Foundation, lunikeza ubufakazi obuqinile bokuthi i-COVID-19 iyisifo sonyaka esihlobene namazinga okushisa aphansi kanye nomswakama, njenge-flu yonyaka. Imiphumela, eshicilelwe ku-Nature Computational Science, iphinde isekele umnikelo omkhulu wokudluliselwa kwe-SARS-CoV-2 emoyeni kanye nesidingo sokushintshela ezindleleni ezikhuthaza “ukuhlanzeka komoya.”
Ithimba labe selihlaziya indlela lokhu kuhlangana phakathi kwesimo sezulu nesifo okwavela ngayo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, nokuthi ngabe kuyahambisana yini ezikalini ezahlukene zezwe. Ngenxa yalokhu, basebenzise indlela yezibalo eyathuthukiswa ngqo ukuhlonza amaphethini afanayo okushintshashintsha (okungukuthi ithuluzi lokubona amaphethini) ngezikhathi ezahlukene. Futhi, bathole ukuhlangana okunamandla okungekuhle kwezikhathi zesikhashana phakathi kwesifo (inani lamacala) nesimo sezulu (izinga lokushisa kanye nomswakama), ngamaphethini ahambisanayo phakathi kwamagagasi okuqala, okwesibili, kanye nokwesithathu obhubhane ezikalini ezahlukene zendawo: emhlabeni wonke, amazwe, kuze kufike ezifundeni ngazinye ngaphakathi kwamazwe athinteke kakhulu (iLombardy, iThüringen, neCatalonia) ngisho nasezingeni ledolobha (iBarcelona).
Amagagasi okuqala obhubhane ancipha njengoba izinga lokushisa nomswakama kukhuphuka, kanti igagasi lesibili likhuphuka njengoba amazinga okushisa nomswakama kwehla. Kodwa-ke, leli phethini laphuka ngesikhathi sasehlobo kuwo wonke amazwekazi. “Lokhu kungachazwa yizici eziningana, okuhlanganisa imibuthano emikhulu yabantu abasha, ezokuvakasha, kanye ne-air conditioner, phakathi kwezinye,” kuchaza u-Alejandro Fontal, umcwaningi kwa-ISGlobal kanye nombhali wokuqala walolu cwaningo.
Lapho kulungiswa imodeli ukuze ihlaziye ubudlelwano besikhashana kuzo zonke izikali emazweni aseNingizimu Yenkabazwe, lapho igciwane lafika khona kamuva, kwabonakala ubudlelwano obufanayo obubi. Imiphumela yesimo sezulu yayibonakala kakhulu emazingeni okushisa aphakathi kuka-12.okanye no-18oAmazinga omswakama kanye no-C aphakathi kuka-4 no-12 g/m3, yize abalobi bexwayisa ngokuthi la mabanga asabonisa, uma kubhekwa amarekhodi amafushane atholakalayo.
Ekugcineni, kusetshenziswa imodeli yezifo, ithimba locwaningo likhombisile ukuthi ukufaka izinga lokushisa esilinganisweni sokudluliselwa kusebenza kangcono ekubikezeleni ukwenyuka nokwehla kwamagagasi ahlukene, ikakhulukazi lawo okuqala nawesithathu eYurophu. “Sekukonke, okutholakele kwethu kusekela umbono we-COVID-19 njengokutheleleka kwangempela kwezinga lokushisa eliphansi kwesizini, okufana nomkhuhlane kanye nama-coronavirus ajikelezayo angenabungozi,” kusho uRodó.
Lokhu kuhambisana kwesizini kungaba negalelo elibalulekile ekudlulisweni kwe-SARS-CoV-2, njengoba izimo zomswakama ophansi ziboniswe ukuthi zinciphisa usayizi wama-aerosol, ngaleyo ndlela zandise ukudluliswa kwamagciwane esizini emoyeni njenge-influenza. “Lokhu kuxhumana kudinga ukugcizelelwa ‘kokuhlanzeka komoya’ ngokuthuthukisa umoya wokungenisa umoya ngaphakathi njengoba ama-aerosol ekwazi ukuqhubeka emisiwe isikhathi eside,” kusho uRodó, futhi ugcizelela isidingo sokufaka imingcele yesimo sezulu ekuhlolweni nasekuhleleni izinyathelo zokulawula.
Ngemva kweminyaka engama-20 yentuthuko, iHoltop ifeze umsebenzi webhizinisi "wokwenza ukwelashwa komoya kube nempilo kakhudlwana, kube ntofontofo futhi konge amandla", futhi yakha isakhiwo sezimboni esizinzile isikhathi eside esigxile ezinkambeni zomoya omusha, umoya opholile kanye nokuvikelwa kwemvelo. Esikhathini esizayo, sizoqhubeka nokunamathela emisha kanye nekhwalithi, futhi ngokubambisana siqhube intuthuko yomkhakha.
Ireferensi: "Amasignesha esimo sezulu kubhubhane oluhlukene lwe-COVID-19 amagagasi kuzo zombili izifunda" ngu-Alejandro Fontal, Menno J. Bouma, Adrià San-José, Leonardo López, Mercedes Pascual & Xavier Rodó, 21 October 2021, Nature Computational Science.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Novemba-16-2022
