Uphononongo olutsha olukhokelwa yiBarcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), iziko elixhaswa yi-"la Caixa" Foundation, lubonelela ngobungqina obuqinileyo bokuba i-COVID-19 lusulelo lwexesha elithile olunxulunyaniswa namaqondo obushushu aphantsi kunye nokufuma, njengomkhuhlane wexesha elithile. Iziphumo, ezipapashwe kwiNature Computational Science, zikwaxhasa igalelo elikhulu lokudluliselwa kwe-SARS-CoV-2 emoyeni kunye nesidingo sokutshintshela kumanyathelo akhuthaza "ucoceko lomoya."
Iqela emva koko lahlalutya indlela olu nxulumano phakathi kwemozulu nesifo oluye lwavela ngayo ngokuhamba kwexesha, kunye nokuba luhambelana na kwiikalika ezahlukeneyo zejografi. Ngenxa yoku, basebenzise indlela yezibalo eyaphuhliswa ngokukodwa ukuchonga iipateni ezifanayo zokwahluka (oko kukuthi isixhobo sokuqaphela iipateni) kwiikalika ezahlukeneyo zexesha. Kwakhona, bafumene unxulumano olubi kakhulu kwiikalika zexesha elifutshane phakathi kwesifo (inani lamatyala) kunye nemozulu (ubushushu kunye nokufuma), kunye neepateni ezihambelanayo ngexesha lamaza okuqala, okwesibini, kunye nokwesithathu obhubhane kwiikalika ezahlukeneyo zeendawo: kwihlabathi liphela, amazwe, ukuya kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo ngaphakathi kwamazwe achaphazeleke kakhulu (iLombardy, iThüringen, kunye neCatalonia) kwanakwinqanaba lesixeko (iBarcelona).
Amaza okuqala obhubhane ancipha njengoko ubushushu kunye nokufuma kusanda, kwaye amaza esibini anyuka njengoko ubushushu kunye nokufuma kwehla. Nangona kunjalo, le ndlela yaphuka ngexesha lasehlotyeni kuwo onke amazwekazi. “Oku kunokucaciswa zizinto ezininzi, kuquka iindibano ezinkulu zabantu abaselula, ukhenketho, kunye nomoya opholileyo, phakathi kwezinye,” ucacisa uAlejandro Fontal, umphandi kwi-ISGlobal kunye nombhali wokuqala wolu phando.
Xa kulungiswa imodeli ukuze ihlalutye ulwalamano lwexeshana kuzo zonke izikali kumazwe akuMzantsi weHlabathi, apho intsholongwane yafika khona kamva, kwabonwa ulwalamano olufanayo olubi. Iziphumo zemozulu zazibonakala kakhulu kumaqondo obushushu aphakathi kwe-12.okunye ne-18oAmanqanaba e-C kunye nokufuma phakathi kwe-4 kunye ne-12 g/m3, nangona ababhali belumkisa ukuba ezi zigaba zisabonisa, ngenxa yeerekhodi ezimfutshane ezikhoyo.
Okokugqibela, kusetyenziswa imodeli ye-epidemiological, iqela lophando libonise ukuba ukufaka ubushushu kwizinga lokusasazeka kusebenza ngcono ekuqikeleleni ukunyuka nokuwa kwamaza ahlukeneyo, ingakumbi lawo okuqala nawesithathu eYurophu. “Lilonke, iziphumo zethu zixhasa umbono we-COVID-19 njengosulelo lokwenyani lobushushu obuphantsi lonyaka, olufana nomkhuhlane kunye nee-coronavirus ezijikelezayo ezingcono,” utshilo uRodó.
Olu hlobo lonyaka lunokuba negalelo elibalulekileyo ekudlulisweni kwe-SARS-CoV-2, kuba iimeko zokufuma eziphantsi zibonakalisiwe ukuba zinciphisa ubungakanani bee-aerosols, kwaye ngaloo ndlela zonyusa ukudluliselwa kweentsholongwane zonyaka emoyeni ezifana ne-influenza. “Olu nxibelelwano lufuna ukugxininiswa ‘kucoceko lomoya’ ngokuphucula umoya ngaphakathi njengoko ii-aerosols zikwazi ukuhlala zimi ixesha elide,” utshilo uRodó, kwaye ugxininisa imfuneko yokubandakanya iiparameter zemozulu kuvavanyo kunye nocwangciso lwamanyathelo olawulo.
Emva kweminyaka engama-20 yophuhliso, iHoltop iphumeze umsebenzi wayo "wokwenza unyango lomoya lube sempilweni ngakumbi, lukhululekile kwaye longe amandla", kwaye yenze ulwakhiwo lwemizi-mveliso oluhlala ixesha elide olugxile kwiindawo zomoya omtsha, umoya opholileyo kunye nokhuseleko lokusingqongileyo. Kwixesha elizayo, siya kuqhubeka nokunamathela kwimveliso entsha kunye nomgangatho, kwaye siqhubele phambili uphuhliso lweshishini ngokubambisana.
Ireferensi: "Utyikityo lwemozulu kumaza obhubhane e-COVID-19 kuzo zombini iihemispheres" ngu-Alejandro Fontal, Menno J. Bouma, Adrià San-José, Leonardo López, Mercedes Pascual & Xavier Rodó, 21 Okthobha 2021, iNzululwazi yeKhompyutha yeNdalo.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Novemba-16-2022
