Huchapupu Hwakasimba Hwekuti COVID-19 Ichirwere Chemwaka - Uye Tinoda "Kuchena Kwemhepo"

Chidzidzo chitsva chinotungamirwa neBarcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), sangano rinotsigirwa ne "la Caixa" Foundation, chinopa humbowo hwakasimba hwekuti COVID-19 chirwere chemwaka chakabatana nekupisa kwakaderera uye hunyoro, zvakafanana nefuruwenza yemwaka. Mhedzisiro yacho, yakaburitswa muNature Computational Science, inotsigirawo mupiro wakakura wekupararira kweSARS-CoV-2 mumhepo uye kudiwa kwekuchinja kune matanho anokurudzira "hutsanana hwemhepo."

mushonga wekudzivirira
mushonga wekudzivirira
Mubvunzo mukuru maererano neSARS-CoV-2 ndewekuti iri kuzvibata here, kana kuti ichaita sei, sehutachiona hwemwaka hwakaita sefuruwenza, kana kuti ichatapuriranwa zvakaenzana chero nguva yegore. Chidzidzo chekutanga chedzidziso chakaratidza kuti mamiriro ekunze haana kukonzera kutapurirana kweCOVID-19, tichifunga nezvehuwandu hwevanhu vane hutachiona husina dziviriro kuhutachiona. Zvisinei, zvimwe zvakaonekwa zvinoratidza kuti kupararira kwekutanga kweCOVID-19 muChina kwakaitika mu latitude iri pakati pe30 ne50.oN, ine hunyoro hwakaderera uye tembiricha yakaderera (pakati pe5ouye 11oC).
"Mubvunzo wekuti COVID-19 chirwere chemwaka chaicho here unowedzera kuva chinhu chikuru, zvine zvazvinoreva pakusarudza matanho anoshanda ekupindira," anotsanangura Xavier Rodó, mutungamiriri wechirongwa cheClimate and Health kuISGlobal uye murongi wechidzidzo ichi. Kuti apindure mubvunzo uyu, Rodó nechikwata chake vakatanga vaongorora hukama hwetembiricha nehunyoro muchikamu chekutanga chekupararira kweSARS-CoV-2 munyika 162 mumakondinendi mashanu, shanduko mumaitiro evanhu uye mitemo yehutano hweveruzhinji isati yaitwa. Mhedzisiro yacho inoratidza hukama husina kunaka pakati pehuwandu hwehutachiona (R0) uye tembiricha nehunyoro pasi rose: huwandu hwehutachiona hwakakwira hwakabatana nekupisa kwakaderera nehunyoro.

Chikwata chakazoongorora kuti hukama uhwu pakati pemamiriro ekunze nechirwere hwakachinja sei nekufamba kwenguva, uye kana hwaienderana pamatanho akasiyana enzvimbo. Pakuita izvi, vakashandisa nzira yekuverenga nhamba yakagadzirirwa kuona maitiro akafanana ekusiyana (kureva chishandiso chekuziva mapatani) panguva dzakasiyana. Zvakare, vakawana hukama hwakasimba husina kunaka pakati penguva pfupi pakati pechirwere (nhamba yezviitiko) nemamiriro ekunze (tembiricha nehunyoro), nemaitiro akafanana panguva yekutanga, yechipiri, uye yechitatu yemafungu edenda pamatanho akasiyana enzvimbo: pasi rose, nyika, kusvika kunzvimbo dzakasiyana-siyana dziri munyika dzakanyanya kukanganiswa (Lombardy, Thüringen, neCatalonia) uye kunyange kusvika padanho reguta (Barcelona).

Mafungu ekutanga edenda akadzikira sezvo tembiricha nehunyoro zvaikwira, uye mafungu echipiri akawedzera sezvo tembiricha nehunyoro zvaiderera. Zvisinei, maitiro aya akakanganiswa munguva yezhizha mumakondinendi ese. "Izvi zvinogona kutsanangurwa nezvinhu zvakati wandei, kusanganisira kuungana kwevanhu vazhinji vechidiki, kushanya, uye mhepo inotonhorera, pakati pezvimwe," anotsanangura Alejandro Fontal, muongorori weISGlobal uye munyori wekutanga wechidzidzo ichi.

Pakugadzirisa modhi iyi kuti iongorore hukama hwenguva pfupi pazviyero zvese munyika dziri kuSouthern Hemisphere, uko hutachiona hwakazosvika gare gare, hukama hwakaipa hwakafanana hwakaonekwa. Mhedzisiro yemamiriro ekunze yakanyanya kuoneka patembiricha dziri pakati pe12.ouye 18oC uye mwero wehunyoro uri pakati pe4 ne12 g/m3, kunyange hazvo vanyori vachinyevera kuti mafambiro aya achiri kuratidza, tichifunga nezvemarekodhi mapfupi aripo.

Pakupedzisira, vachishandisa modhi yezvirwere, timu yekutsvagisa yakaratidza kuti kuisa tembiricha muhuwandu hwehutachiona kunoshanda zvirinani pakufanotaura kukwira nekudzika kwemafungu akasiyana, kunyanya ekutanga neechitatu muEurope. "Pamwe chete, zvatakawana zvinotsigira maonero eCOVID-19 sehutachiona hwechokwadi hwemwaka husina tembiricha yakawanda, hwakafanana nefuruwenza uye ma coronavirus asina njodzi," anodaro Rodó.

Kugara kwenguva pfupi uku kunogona kubatsira zvikuru mukupararira kweSARS-CoV-2, sezvo hunyoro hushoma hwakaratidzwa kuti hunoderedza hukuru hwemaaerosols, uye nokudaro hunowedzera kutapurirana kwemavhairasi emwaka mumhepo akadai sefuruwenza. "Izvi zvinoreva kuti tinofanira kusimbisa 'kuchena kwemhepo' kuburikidza nekuvandudza kufefetera kwemukati sezvo maaerosols achigona kuramba akamiswa kwenguva yakareba," anodaro Rodó, uye anoratidza kudiwa kwekusanganisira zviyero zvemamiriro ekunze mukuongorora nekuronga matanho ekudzora.

Mushure memakore makumi maviri ekuvandudza, Holtop yave kuita basa re "kuita kuti kurapwa kwemhepo kuve kwakanaka, kwakanaka uye kuchengetedza simba", uye yakagadzira hurongwa hwemaindasitiri hunogara kwenguva refu hwakatarisana neminda yemhepo itsva, mhepo inotonhodza uye yekuchengetedza nharaunda. Mune ramangwana, ticharamba tichitevedzera hunyanzvi uye mhando, uye pamwe chete tichitungamira kukura kweindasitiri.

HOLTOP-HVAC

Chirevo: "Masiginecha emamiriro ekunze mune akasiyana COVID-19 denda mafungu kumativi ese ari maviri" naAlejandro Fontal, Menno J. Bouma, Adrià San-José, Leonardo López, Mercedes Pascual & Xavier Rodó, 21 Gumiguru 2021, Nature Computational Sayenzi.


Nguva yekutumira: Mbudzi-16-2022

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